HMMM, Rather than dissect this incident based on American politics, I believe we should view this from the perspective of a regional war.
Just a few thoughts:
first it is clear that something has changed. Iranian agents are making it into the news on a regular basis now. While many will view this as an attempt to manipulate domestic opinion, I believe that these events are the result in a shift in the ME. We’ve been hearing about Sunni concerns for Iranian ascendancy for quite a while. It seems at least possible, if not probable that other arab states are now using thier various resources against the Iranians. this shadow war might very well pit the secret arms of the Saudi kingdom against the IRG.
next, the story that triggered the post originated in the Palestinian area. It is widely beleived that a keystone of Iranian policy was ownership of the Muslim/Israeli conflict. The recent hot war was started by two Iranian proxies: Hamas and Hezbullah. The other arab states are in a tough spot. They may not wish to publically support Israel, but they certainly don’t want Iran owning the tip of Allah’s spear.
Nasrallah’s effort at overthrow seem to have stalled. Siniora has backing enough to stare Hassan down and hezbullah is reduced to street theatre. Granting that while the Hariri investigation hasn’t made progress the fragile Lebanese government is still breathing. My guess is that the competing arab states are seeking ways to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran. If that means giving up on the hariri investigation they may just pay that price.
I have long believed that the US was engaged in an all out push against the Mullahs. It may have looked toothless to most of us, but it seems to be bearing fruit now. The Iranians admitted that foreign investment was difficult because of American strictures on banking and the recent decision by the US Treasury department to name Iran’s premier bank a terror supporter will only exacerbate this problem. Thinking about this regionally we have the Kurds causing trouble in the north, the saudis attempting to hurt Iran’s oil income, the Americans promising to roll up Iranian networks in Iraq and now an IRG general is arrested in Palestine. Things aren’t going to well for the Mullahs.
On the military side I see a these incidents: A US submarine has an accident, coliding with a Japanese tanker in the straits of hormuz. It might have been an accident, but I can well imagine that more than one senior Iranian whispered the persian for “holy ####”. The second carrier group is an interesting move and there is simply no point in being coy about it. The carriers are too big and too public. but hey, there they are. We moved some patriot missles in to the area recently as I recall and just this week we announced another successful antimissle test.
a recent learned paper reminded many that America effectively countered an Iranian effort to shut down the straits in the 80’s so that move lost much of its value as a threat.
this arrest incident should’nt be viewed in a vacuum. Something big is afoot.