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Haaretz reports on the alleged capture of Iranian milita

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Another confirmation that Sunnis and Shias can unite against their common enemy

We can only conclude that Fatah is trying to “provoke” Iran (http://tinyurl.com/2c42cg).
Add the following to the list of questions for Presidential hopefuls (http://tinyurl.com/yw6b8m): “Mr. Obama, would your diplomatic overtures to Iran support the efforts of Fatah to arrest or kill Iranian agents who are building firearms, including Qassam rockets, for Hamas, in Gaza city? If not, why not?”

HMMM, Rather than dissect this incident based on American politics, I believe we should view this from the perspective of a regional war.

Just a few thoughts:

first it is clear that something has changed.  Iranian agents are making it into the news on a regular basis now.  While many will view this as an attempt to manipulate domestic opinion, I believe that these events are the result in a shift in the ME.  We’ve been hearing about Sunni concerns for Iranian ascendancy for quite a while.  It seems at least possible, if not probable that other arab states are now using thier various resources against the Iranians.  this shadow war might very well pit the secret arms of the Saudi kingdom against the IRG.

next, the story that triggered the post originated in the Palestinian area.  It is widely beleived that a keystone of Iranian policy was ownership of the Muslim/Israeli conflict.  The recent hot war was started by two Iranian proxies: Hamas and Hezbullah.  The other arab states are in a tough spot.  They may not wish to publically support Israel, but they certainly don’t want Iran owning the tip of Allah’s spear.

Nasrallah’s effort at overthrow seem to have stalled.  Siniora has backing enough to stare Hassan down and hezbullah is reduced to street theatre. Granting that while the Hariri investigation hasn’t made progress the fragile Lebanese government is still breathing.  My guess is that the competing arab states are seeking ways to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran.  If that means giving up on the hariri investigation they may just pay that price.

I have long believed that the US was engaged in an all out push against the Mullahs.  It may have looked toothless to most of us, but it seems to be bearing fruit now.  The Iranians admitted that foreign investment was difficult because of American strictures on banking and the recent decision by the US Treasury department to name Iran’s premier bank a terror supporter will only exacerbate this problem.  Thinking about this regionally we have the Kurds causing trouble in the north, the saudis attempting to hurt Iran’s oil income, the Americans promising to roll up Iranian networks in Iraq and now an IRG general is arrested in Palestine.  Things aren’t going to well for the Mullahs.

On the military side I see a these incidents: A US submarine has an accident, coliding with a Japanese tanker in the straits of hormuz.  It might have been an accident, but I can well imagine that more than one senior Iranian whispered the persian for “holy ####”.  The second carrier group is an interesting move and there is simply no point in being coy about it.  The carriers are too big and too public.  but hey, there they are.  We moved some patriot missles in to the area recently as I recall and just this week we announced another successful antimissle test.

a recent learned paper reminded many that America effectively countered an Iranian effort to shut down the straits in the 80’s so that move lost much of its value as a threat.

this arrest incident should’nt be viewed in a vacuum. Something big is afoot.

Skipsailing:

Interesting speculations. I hope you are right, and I agree with almost everything you say. Certainly members of the House of Saud can see that the Iranians’ long-term goals include their destruction.

I think, though, that this incident is intelligible simply as the result of Israel’s decision, going back to Rabin, to “neutralize its ‘inner circle of threat,’” as Halevi and Oren put it in their recent New Republic piece ("Contra Iran"---their titles continue to be clever). I’d at least wish to see some more evidence that US diplomatic/strategic effforts are behind this particular move. (It would be heartening, but...)

Can you elaborate on your suggestion that the American-Japanese naval collision was somehow a warning to Iran? That doesn’t seem plausible to me, but I’m curious.

Also, spell out if you would the particulars, as you see them, of the attempt to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran. And what are your thoughts on the wisdom of such an attempt? Is Assad ready to throw in the towel, a la Gaddafi? (I have my doubts about both, actually, though obviously much depends on Iraq.)

I don’t know if the accident was real or staged, honestly.  I read the milblogs about it shortly after it happened and they shed no insight.  Such accidents are rare but they do happen.  The waters there are shallow and busy. It is my understanding that the sub struck the tanker from behind while cruising at periscope depth.  Apparently these boats are somewhat blind to ships directly infront of them.

what I do think though is that these submarines aren’t prone to surfacing just anywhere.  So when this bad boy popped up right off shore the Iranians got a jolt.  It was I believe a reminder to them of the vast resources we have at our disposal. We may be reluctant to use them, but we own them and suddenly they are right off the coast.  I guess I’m saying that the surfacing of this submarine brought an end to “out of sight, out of mind”.

As for syria, I’m being truly cynical.  The assads have survived by sheer cunning.  My guess is that the Syrians won’t chose to be associated with a loser for fear of losing their little fiefdom.  Like arabs throughout history I think they will ride the fence and not really commit until they see who the ultimate victor will be.

right now the stakes for them seem relatively low.  The safe haven they provide for Ba athists doesn’t qualify as a CB and hasn’t since we invaded.  Their meddling in Lebannon is a problem but as long as Nasrallah is carrying the water they can stay in the shadows.

No, my belief is that Assad will find a way to ally himself with the winner and won’t be definitive until that winner is obvious.  If the heat continues to build against Iran syria will play cat and mouse.  I doubt that anyone in the region really expects assad to chose a side at this time.  he looks like he’s in the Mullah’s hip pocket but in the ME everything and everybody is for sale.

there are all sorts of carrots that could be dangled in front of Assad right now and if Nasrallah’s little pschyodrama fails then Syria is still in decent shape.

Good thought provoking questions. Thanks!!!